Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
